Back on the shelf

But in some slightly-more-welcome news, President Barack Obama says the US has shelved plans for a missile defence system based in controversial bases in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The system, so beloved of former President George W Bush and Neo-Cons everywhere, was intended to blow a missile attack on the US out of the sky. They said it was to stop 'rogue states' such as Iran and North Korea from attacking. But since Russia is pretty much the only country that is a) not a mate of the US, b) has ICBM capability and c) is far nearer to Poland and the Czech Republic than, say, Iran, it's hard to refute Russian allegations that the system was aimed at them.

Who's fool idea was this?!

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez has announced that the country will soon take delivery of Russian missiles with a range of 300km.

Terrorists "could use internet to spark nuclear war"

Terrorists groups could soon use the internet to help set off a devastating nuclear attack, according to new research, the Guardian says.

The claims in a study commissioned by the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND) suggest that under the right circumstances, terrorists could break into computer systems and launch nukes at another nuclear state – triggering a a devastating retaliatory attack.

Without better protection of computer and information systems, the paper suggests, governments around the world are leaving open the possibility that a well-coordinated cyberwar could quickly elevate to nuclear levels: "Though the paper admits that the media and entertainment industries often confuse and exaggerate the risk of cyberterrorism, it also outlines a number of potential threats and situations in which dedicated hackers could use information warfare techniques to make a nuclear attack more likely."

The REAL moment the Cuban Missile Crisis nearly erupted into war

Declassified documents, revealed at a conference on the Cuban Missile Crisis in Havana, show that events edged closer to global nuclear war than previously thought.

The most dangerous day of all was apparently October 27, 1962 - when a US Navy destroyer dropping depth charges off the Cuban coast almost accidentally hit the hull of a Soviet submarine carrying a nuclear warhead.

The U.S. military "did not have a clue that the submarine had a nuclear weapon on board," said Thomas Blanton, director of the National Security Archives.

The nonprofit archive at George Washington University collected many of the documents for study during the three-day conference back in 2002.

The depth charges "exploded right next to the hull," Vadim Orlov, the submarine's signals intelligence officer, said in a written account of the incident. "It felt like you were sitting in a metal barrel, which somebody is constantly blasting with a sledgehammer."

At first, submarine crew members considered using the nuclear weapon, thinking war had erupted. But they ultimately surfaced, showing themselves to their American pursuers and defusing the tension.

What do you need to cripple the United States of America?

Well, the New England bit of anyway ...

Well, according to Republican House of Representative member for Maryland Roscoe Barlett (great name, fella), you need a boat, $100,000 to buy a scud-missile launcher, and a crude nuclear weapon. Then you fire it into the sky and set it off.

The electro-magnetic pulse from such a weapon "might not paralyze the entire United States, Roscoe concedes, "But you could shut down all of New England. And if you missed by 100 miles, it’s as good as a bulls eye"."

Hardly a doomsday weapon by any stretch of the imagination, though surely if any rogue state or terrorist organisation actually HAD such a system they'd go for the wide-spread and altogether more attention-grabbing loss of life by firing it AT a major city, rather than wasting it inconveniencing a few New Englanders who find their TVs don't work no more?

Games console nearly sparks Armageddon!

Occasions when electronic video games consoles are appropriate: while relaxing at home, a distraction on long journeys, entertainment while on holiday ...

Occasions when they are NOT appropriate: GUARDING A HIGH SECURITY NUCLEAR WEAPONS PLANT!

Three guards have been suspended for bringing video game devices, including one with transmitting capability, into the heart of a the Y-12 nuclear weapons plant in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

Spokeswoman Courtney Henry confirmed that the three security police officers were suspended without pay for an incident three weeks ago at the plant after they brought electronic game devices into the plant's "protected area" where warhead parts are made, dismantled and recycled.

Not even mobile phones are allowed in there, yet one of the players was a portable Sony PSP with "transmission capability".

The plant has since issued new rules requiring that guards personal bags be checked before they are taken into the area.

'Armageddon' alarm bell rings over Pakistan

All is not well in Pakistan.

The north western region of Buner is only 65 miles from the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, yet it has become a stronghold of the Taliban after locals allowed them operate with impunity in exchange for the local implimentation of Sharia Law.

This underlines the growing concern that the Taliban are a significant threat to the Pakistani state - something echoed by former CIA Middle East expert Bruce Riedel - who is now warning about "Armageddon in Islamabad".

In February, President Barack Obama appointed him chair of an inter-agency overhaul of US policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan. His latest assessment says, "A jihadist victory in Pakistan ... would create the greatest threat the United States has yet to face in its war on terror ... [and] is now a real possibility in the foreseeable future." It would bolster al Qaeda's capabilities tenfold, Mr. Riedel concludes.

It would also give terrorists a nuclear capability.

"A jihadist, nuclear-armed Pakistan," says Riedel, "is a scenario we need to avoid at all costs."

Back in May, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif claimed Pakistan’s nuclear command and control system was "safe and more secure than that of any other country in the world", yet the Taliban insurgency in the north of the country has only heightened the fear of the US and its allies that, unless stopped, the militants could conceiveably gain access to nuclear weapons. Assurances that their missiles could be scuttled in the event of a Taliban victory have done nothing to allay fears, as even basic nuclear material could be engineered into so-called 'dirty bombs' that require no delivery system more complex than a van.

It has long been assumed by Pakistan and others that the main threat to its security was the long-standing emnity with its regional rival, India, and its first nuclear test 11 years ago sparked fears of a serious local nuclear arms race between the rwo - the flashpoint assumed to be the disputed region of Kashmir. Pakistan now has between 35 and 120 warheads, all within the 25-36 kiloton range, and they also possess the means to deliver them - their Shaheen-II missiles have a range of 3,500km.

Iranian nuclear chief 'resigns'

The BBC is reporting that the head of Iran's nuclear programme has resigned.

No immediate reason for the resignation has yet been revealed, but back in April during one of the inumerable stand-offs between the US and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh said Iran had increased the number of centrifuges - required to enrich (and, the US claims, weaponise) nuclear material - it is running from 6,000 to 7,000 in February.

I need a hol-i-day, a nuclear hol-i-day ...

Love is all around at the moment. Nuclear love, that is, as Russia announces a "comprehensive military rearmament" from 2011 - partly in response to perceived shortcomings during the recent war with Georgia and also in reaction to NATO's expansion and America's continued plans for its missile defence shield (no word on that yet from the Obama administration?) Russian President Dmitry Medvedev specifically named his country's strategic nuclear forces as being in need of the $140bn (£94.5bn) boost.

Meanwhile, China has voiced concern about the rising tensions in Korea over the forthcoming North's rocket test launch - with Japan even suggesting it could deploy a vessel equipped with missile interceptor technology to the Sea of Japan (East Sea) to destroy the rocket. Worries continue that North Korea is slowly but surely building an arsenal capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

And British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has told Iran it should "let the world help it get civil nuclear power" and announced that an expansion of nuclear power was needed globally to meet carbon reduction targets. This less than a month after Iran and Russia started tests of the Middle Eastern country's first nuclear power plant.

Edit:
Further to coverage of Gordon Brown's warning to Iran, the BBC (where would I be without them?) helpfully did a nice little feature on the issue of Iran's civilian nuclear programme, but one which makes it clear that the UK is involved in this nuclear rearmament race, even if it is by stealth.

Elsewhere in his speech ... the UK leader also proposed to further reduce Britain's own nuclear warheads in the run-up to the next five-yearly proliferation review conference next year. These warheads now number fewer than 160.

The weakness in his argument, other governments might say, is that at the same time Britain is also starting on a major programme of renewing its nuclear weapons. It is planning to build four new submarines, will take part in an American programme to extend the life of the Trident D5 missile and is examining an upgrade for its own warheads.

N Korea gets jumpy, threatens war

Good to see the stand-off in Korea continues to bubble along nicely*, while talks over North Korea's nuclear ambitions remain stalled.

North Korea has warned that any attempt to shoot down a satellite it says it plans to launch will result in war, while also putting its military on full combat alert as an annual military exercise by US and South Korean forces begins. North Korea is always rankled by the annual drill, which tests the joint forces' ability to defend the peninsula.

The South and the US believe Pyongyang could be preparing to test-fire a long-range missile under the guise of a satellite launch.

In January, N Korea scrapped a series of peace agreements with the South over Seoul's decision to link bilateral aid to progress on "denuclearisation".

* irony

Deadly shipment 'under threat from terrorists'

According to the Times yesterday (no, go and find your own damn link!), Greenpeace is claiming a French consignment of reprocessed nuclear fuel to Japan contains enough bomb-grade plutonium to make 225 nuclear weapons and is at risk from being hijacked by terrorists.

The shipment of mixed oxide (MOX), a blend of plutonium and reprocessed uranium, is being carried on two ships from the British-based firm Pacific Nuclear Transport from Cherbourg this week. Areva, the reprocessing company, confirmed the shipment and said the vessels would be "armed and protected by specifically trained guards from Britain".

Just so you know, you recover bomb-grade plutonium by re-processing spent nuclear fuel and separating the plutonium from remaining uranium and waste fission products.

Radioactive relic found

A bottle discarded at a waste site in the US contains the oldest sample of bomb-grade plutonium made in a nuclear reactor, scientists say.

The sample dates to 1944 and is a relic from the infancy of the US nuclear weapons programme.

The type of plutonium in the bottle - known as Pu-239 - is a so-called alpha emitter. These alpha particles are too bulky to penetrate skin or paper, but they can cause poisoning if swallowed or inhaled.

It has a half-life (the time it takes for half the radioactive nuclei in a sample to decay) of 24,110 years.

The bottle in question was discovered in a burial trench at the Hanford nuclear site in Washington state, north-western US.

Established as part of the Manhattan Project in 1943, Hanford was home to the world's first full-scale plutonium production facility.

Nuclear neighbours spooked by apocalptic headlines?

The spotlight looking on how the media use apocalyptic language has fallen on the aftermath of the recent terrorist attack in Mumbai, India.

Even before the situation was over, the Indian media was "quick to pin the blame on Islamabad" while the Pakistani media were no less blameless - quickly responding against all accusations.

However, the more worrying aspect was the way the global media picked up on the tensions and you'd have been forgiven for thinking we were on the verge of a war between two nuclear neighbours. Yet in reality, neither country seemed to be anywhere near that stage or even thinking about it. Pakistan's indignant reaction to the early accusations do raise the question of whether the media can itself contribute to and escalate an already tense situation.

But apocalyptic language can make quick and easy headlines. The consequences of using it, however, are not so easily dealt with.

Survivalism inudstry gets a boost in uncertain times

Far be it from us at The End is Nigh to suggest newspaper headlines cause people to act irrationally, but one Wisconsin TV station is reporting that firms touting survivalist paraphernalia are doing brisk business.

Lehman's, an Ohio retailer of "home self-sufficiency equipment" has apparently recorded "large sales increases, with water-pump sales up 95 percent and sales of home agriculture equipment up 50 percent from last fall. Minnesota-based Safecastle, which markets home shelters for protection against disasters like hurricanes and chemical attacks, has seen revenues more than double since 2007, says founder Vic Rantala."

"If most people think of a survivalist as an armed loner with extreme views -- there are folks like that out there, but there are many more in America who are simply involved in preparing for down times, lean times, or disaster," says Mr. Rantala, a former US intelligence analyst. "It's logical. It's common sense."

We're sure the US economy could do with the spending boost, but after years of being told just how misleading those old Cold War public service announcements about 'Duck and Cover' were, why are people still handing money over to KI4U, a Texas-based firm that peddles "personal radiation-detection devices", 'anti-radiation' potassium iodide pills and "distributes free nuclear-disaster survival guides, instructing people to keep rain ponchos, dust masks, and honey (a high-calorie food that doesn't spoil) on hand at all times"?!

Bush - how on Earth did we survive EIGHT years?!

"The president of the United States, now for 50 years, is followed at all times, 24 hours a day, by a military aide carrying a 'football' that contains the nuclear codes that he would use, and be authorized to use, in the event of a nuclear attack on the United States. He could launch the kind of devastating attack the world has never seen. He doesn't have to check with anybody. He doesn't have to call the Congress. He doesn't have to check with the courts. He has that authority because of the nature of the world we live in"

-- Dick Cheney

Bill Gates: the nuclear antichrist?

It seems Microsoft Windows is now powering the British Royal Navy's nuclear-armed submarine fleet.

The end, surely, cannot be far away ...

Anti-MAD adviser dies

William Kaufmann, 90, a political scientist and Pentagon adviser who helped shape Cold War nuclear defense strategy, died on December 14.

The former national security expert spent many years fighting the prevailing war plan of the United States - all-out nuclear attack in response to any potential Soviet armed threat no matter how trivial.

Kaufmann attracted attention in military circles for a controversial 1954 essay, "The Requirements of Deterrence, which criticised the idea that the US could 'win' a nuclear war.

"We must face the fact," he wrote, "that, if we are challenged to fulfill the threat of massive retaliation, we will be likely to suffer costs as great as those we inflict."

NEWS: Spanish town still haunted by its brush with Armageddon

Fascinating piece in the International Herald Tribune about the Spanish town that very nearly became ground zero for a nuclear holocaust in 1966, after a B-52 carrying nuclear weapons exploded above it in midair ...

On the morning of Jan. 17, 1966, a U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber returning from a routine Cold War alert mission exploded during airborne refueling, sending its cargo of B28 hydrogen bombs plummeting toward earth.

One went into the azure waters of the Mediterranean and three others fell around this poor farming village, about 200 kilometers, or 125 miles, east of Granada.

Seven crew members on the air force planes perished in the fireball, while four parachuted to safety. No one on the ground was killed. The nuclear warheads, many times more powerful than those that fell on Hiroshima, did not go off - exactly.

ANALYSIS: web 'must separate rumour' from science

As a source of apocalyptic rumour and panic, the internet can't be beaten. Once upon a time, doomsayers were confined to preaching, pamphlet/book printing or - in usually quite extreme cases - bagging mainstream media attention to propagate their ideas, but now anybody with a copy of Dreamweaver and a broadband connection can be all over the internet like a rash.
Now obviously the flap over the LHC was something more than that, since those who launched the biggest legal challenge against the switch-on were scientists themselves, but you don't have to have an intimate understanding of Google's listing system to find websites that put an apocalyptic slant on scientific discoveries or ideas both old and new. Polar shifts, the conjunction of planets, asteroid strikes, shooting stars, even messages in the layout of the pyramids in Egypt - all these ideas and more (worse?) find a home on the World Wide Web. It's a boon for us - since it makes these people all the easier to find - but it also means the mainstream media are more likely to pick up on the latest predictions and by broadcasting them they encourage others to find or believe in them. It's a vicious circle that's not really been addressed by a loony-ignoring scientific community before.
It is therefore a sign of how significant the LHC flap was that Sir Tim Berners-Lee, the man who gave birth to the internet, has said he is "increasingly worried" about the way the web has been used to spread "disinformation".
Speaking to the BBC News website in advance of an announcement about a Foundation he has helped create that he hopes will improve the World Wide Web, Sir Tim has voiced concern about the use of the web to spread fears that flicking the switch on the LHC could create a Black Hole that could swallow up the Earth. He also linked this to general 'scientiphobia' such as the spread of rumours that the MMR vaccine could cause autism.
"On the web the thinking of cults can spread very rapidly and suddenly a cult which was 12 people who had some deep personal issues suddenly find a formula which is very believable," he said. "A sort of conspiracy theory of sorts and which you can imagine spreading to thousands of people and being deeply damaging."
It's obvious why the misguided interest in the LHC should provoke his ire - his pioneering work on the web was done at the collider's home of CERN at Geneva - but it must also be truly galling to see what could be one of the most important experiments in the history of mankind reduced to the status of a freakshow by journalists whose attention helped explode bog-standard apocalyptic scaremongering into a real 'silly season' summer story.
Sir Tim's solution? Systems that would give websites a label for trustworthiness once they had been proved reliable sources. Whether this is in any way workable or not, it's significant that the father of the internet (who thanks to his connections at CERN is also a major figure in the wider scientific community) has chosen to tackle such people head on, rather than ignore them lest the attention almost legitimise their ideas.
But did scientific rebuttals destroy the MMR allegations and lay parents' minds at rest? The downward spiral of uptake rates for the vaccine would suggest otherwise and it can be argued that suspicions of science, and those 'in charge', run much deeper than those behind paternalistic action plans maybe realise.
Apocalyptic ideas are ultimately an expression of our fear of the unknown, of things that come outside the world's received wisdom - they feed on uncertainty and the LHC just proves that no scientist can ever give the 100% guarantee of what will happen in an experiment (otherwise, what's the point of doing it in the first place?)

So bear in mind that Robert J Oppenheimer, who created the world's first atomic bomb, ordered extensive calculations to prove that the detonation wouldn't set off a chain-reaction in the upper atmosphere which would engulf the planet in flame - which may well represent the first quantitative risk assessment of human extinction, something that has continued on and off for almost 70 years.

NEWS: Risking Armageddon for Cold, Hard Cash

Washington Post: September 7, 2008

While everyone has been abuzz about Georgia, the Beijing Olympics and Sarah Palin, perhaps the most important development in the world has been unfolding with almost no attention. India and the United States, along with deep-pocketed corporations, have been steadily pushing along a lucrative and dangerous new nuclear pact, the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement. Both governments have been working at a fever pitch to get the pact approved by the 45-country Nuclear Suppliers Group, which governs the world's trade in nuclear materials, and before Congress for a final vote before it adjourns this month.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says the deal will let his country, which refuses to sign either the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, take "its rightful place among the comity of nations." I entirely understand why today's democratic, globalized and modernizing India wants recognition and respect, and I agree that it needs more energy. But this foolish, risky deal is not the way to get any of these things. India's democracy has already paid a crippling price, and now the planet may too.

The historic deal will allow U.S. nuclear companies to again do business in India, something that has been barred since 1974, when New Delhi tested its first atomic bomb. (India tested nuclear bombs again in 1998, spurring Pakistan to follow suit with its own tests days later.) The pact will also lift restrictions on other countries' sales of nuclear technology and fuel to India, while asking virtually nothing from India in return. All of that will undermine the very international system that India so ardently seeks to join.

The deal risks triggering a new arms race in Asia: If it passes, a miffed and unstable Pakistan will seek nuclear parity with India, and China will fume at a transparent U.S. ploy to balance Beijing's rise by building up India as a counterweight next door. The pact will gut global efforts to contain the spread of nuclear materials and encourage other countries to flout the NPT that India is now being rewarded for failing to sign. The U.S.-India deal will divert billions of dollars away from India's real development needs in sustainable agriculture, education, health care, housing, sanitation and roads. It will also distract India from developing clean energy sources, such as wind and solar power, and from reducing emissions from its many coal plants. Instead, the pact will focus the nation's efforts on an energy source that will, under the rosiest of projections, contribute a mere 8 percent of India's total energy needs -- and won't even do that until 2030.

So what will the deal accomplish? It will generate billions of dollars in lucrative contracts for the corporate members of the U.S.-India Business Council and the Confederation of Indian Industry. The Bush administration hopes that it will help resuscitate the moribund U.S. nuclear power industry and expand the use of this "non-polluting" source of energy, one of the pillars of the Bush team's energy policy. The deal will let the real leaders of the global nuclear-power business -- France and Russia, both of which eagerly support the deal -- reap huge profits in India. And the pact will provide spectacularly profitable opportunities to India's leading corporations, which are slavering to get their hands on a share of the booty. How much booty? This newspaper estimates more than $100 billion in business over the next 20 years, as well as perhaps tens of thousands of jobs in India and the United States.

This is what the U.S.-India nuclear deal is really all about. This is what the nonproliferation regime that has kept the world safe from nuclear Armageddon for decades is being risked for: cash